Tropical cyclone risk assessment reflecting the climate change trend: the case of South Korea

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) have been one of the major natural hazards in South Korea. Increasing TC threats with significant losses have been observed over the last two decades, raising demand for better TC risk assessment in this region. However, it is observed in the literature that a comprehensive framework to help understand event features, changing climate landscape and corresponding loss results is hardly studied. To fill this gap, we propose a three-step approach to quantifying TC risks. Using historical TC records, geographic information, and socioeconomic factors, we first cluster patterns of TC hazards (i.e., track, wind speed, and precipitation) affecting South Korea. We then predict TC hazards and regional economic losses per cluster, and subsequently examine the temperature trend at the grid level, which we use to study the impact of climate change on loss prediction. The results highlight that the annual TC losses are expected to increase by 14 and 45% in the years 2050 and 2100, respectively, compared to that in 2020 and that the TC season in South Korea may last longer in future. Our findings can be useful for (re)insurers and policymakers to develop risk management schemes for regions in Korea that are more vulnerable to TC risks. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2024.