Significant relationship between Arctic warming and East Asia hot summers

Abstract

© 2022 Royal Meteorological Society.Arctic warming is of growing interest because it could affect midlatitude climates. Even though numerous studies have paid attention to the relationship between Arctic warming and the midlatitude climate in winter, the influence of Arctic warming on the summer conditions has not been examined in depth. Here we identify a significant relationship between East Asia hot summers and Arctic warming over the Barents and Kara seas. To represent Arctic warming, we define a combined index by simply differencing the normalized surface air temperature and sea-ice indices. We found that the combined index in July has significantly high correlations with the temperatures in China, Korea, and Japan. While the teleconnection mechanism is not completely revealed, it is evident that warming over the Barents and Kara seas is accompanied by the local development of an anomalous anticyclone and downstream wave trains, which yield a strong anticyclonic circulation over East Asia and the North Pacific. The anticyclonic circulation persists and intensifies until August, which leads to hot summer conditions in East Asia with warm advection and enhanced shortwave radiation. Our results suggest that Arctic climate conditions can be used as a useful precursor of East Asia temperature variations even in summer.