Inter-model differences in future summer onset over the northern high latitudes
SCIE
SCOPUS
- Title
- Inter-model differences in future summer onset over the northern high latitudes
- Authors
- PARK, BOJOUNG; MIN, SEUNG KI; RYU, YOUNG HEE
- Date Issued
- 2022-12
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union
- Abstract
- Climate models consistently project a significant advance of summer onset over the Northern high latitude lands in the late 21st century. However, large inter-model differences exist, in particular, over Northwest Russia, Bering Sea region and Northeastern Canada. This study quantifies the influences of background global warming rate and regional snow-albedo feedback on the inter-model spreads in summer onset projections. Linear regression analysis reveals that models' transient climate response (TCR) values explain around 39%–50% of regional inter-model variances, indicating the dominant contribution of models' global warming rate. When removing TCR influences, the summer onset and snow cover exhibit significant inter-model correlations over Bering Sea region and Northeastern Canada, explaining 25%–30% of the inter-model variances. These results suggest that global climate sensitivity as well as regional snow-albedo feedback need to be considered for reliable projection of future summer season timing at regional scales.
- URI
- https://oasis.postech.ac.kr/handle/2014.oak/115061
- DOI
- 10.1029/2022GL100739
- ISSN
- 0094-8276
- Article Type
- Article
- Citation
- Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 49, no. 24, 2022-12
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- There are no files associated with this item.
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