CMIP5 model evaluation for extreme ocean wave height responses to ENSO

Abstract

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts significant influences on extreme significant wave height (SWH) but climate model capabilities in reproducing the observed ENSO impact on SWH have not been evaluated. This study assesses the performances of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models in term of extreme SWH responses to ENSO over the Indo-Pacific Ocean focusing on December-February (DJF). 18 CMIP5 models are evaluated using their historical simulations for 1950–2005 in view of the ERA-20C reanalysis. A non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) analysis is employed to fit DJF maxima of 6-hourly SWHs and obtain the extreme SWH response patterns to ENSO by incorporating Niño3.4 index as a covariate. Results show that CMIP5 models can on average capture the major observed mean and extreme SWH responses to ENSO, including the increased SWH over the northeastern North Pacific (NENP) and the decreased SWH over the Maritime Continent (MC) during El Niño. The inter-model relations between ENSO characteristics and SWH responses are further examined for the two hotspot regions (NENP and MC). It is found that ENSO intensity is a dominant factor determining simulated SWH over the NENP such that models with stronger ENSO simulate stronger SWH responses. In contrast, for the MC, the sea level pressure teleconnection pattern significantly affects the inter-model spread in SWH responses, also explaining the systematic underestimation of SWH responses over the region. Implication is that ENSO intensity and atmospheric teleconnection patterns need to be considered for better simulations and reliable predictions of extreme SWH variability. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.