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A Forecast and Mitigation Model of Construction Performance by Assessing Detailed Engineering Maturity at Key Milestones for Offshore EPC Mega-Projects

Title
A Forecast and Mitigation Model of Construction Performance by Assessing Detailed Engineering Maturity at Key Milestones for Offshore EPC Mega-Projects
Authors
KIM, MYUNGHUNLEE, EUL BUMCHOI, HAN SUK
Date Issued
Mar-2019
Publisher
MDPI Open Access Publishing
Abstract
The main subject of this research is to develop a forecast and mitigation model of schedule and cost performance during a detailed engineering stage of offshore engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) projects. The weight factors of major elements in detailed engineering completion rating index system (DECRIS) were measured using a fuzzy inference system (FIS) and an analytic hierarchy process (AHP). At five key engineering milestones, from an EPC contract being awarded to the start of construction, detailed engineering maturities were assessed in fourteen historical offshore EPC projects using the DECRIS model. DECRIS cutoff scores for successful project execution were defined at the key engineering milestones. A schedule and cost performance was forecasted and validated through comparison of DECRIS and other models using statistical confidence of a fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) and a regression analysis. As a mitigation method for engineering risks to EPC contractors, engineering resource enhancement is recommended for trade-off optimization of cost overrun using a Monte Carlo simulation. The main contribution of this research is that EPC contractors could continuously forecast construction costs and schedule performance utilizing the DECRIS model, and could review the adequacy of engineering resources, assessing the trade-off between said resources and cost/schedule risk mitigation.
URI
http://oasis.postech.ac.kr/handle/2014.oak/94902
ISSN
2071-1050
Article Type
Article
Citation
Sustainability, vol. 11, no. 5, 2019-03
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 LEE, EUL BUM
Graduate Institute of Ferrous Technology
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