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Thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to future changes in summer precipitation over Northeast Asia and Korea: a multi-RCM study

Title
Thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to future changes in summer precipitation over Northeast Asia and Korea: a multi-RCM study
Authors
MIN, SEUNG KIDONGHYUN, LEEJONGHUN, JIN
POSTECH Authors
MIN, SEUNG KI
Date Issued
Dec-2017
Publisher
SPRINGER
Abstract
This study examines future changes in precipitation over Northeast Asia and Korea using five regional climate model (RCM) simulations driven by single global climate model (GCM) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios. Focusing on summer season (June–July–August) when heavy rains dominate in this region, future changes in precipitation and associated variables including temperature, moisture, and winds are analyzed by comparing future conditions (2071–2100) with a present climate (1981–2005). Physical mechanisms are examined by analyzing moisture flux convergence at 850 hPa level, which is found to have a close relationship to precipitation and by assessing contribution of thermodynamic effect (TH, moisture increase due to warming) and dynamic effect (DY, atmospheric circulation change) to changes in the moisture flux convergence. Overall background warming and moistening are projected over the Northeast Asia with a good inter-RCM agreement, indicating dominant influence of the driving GCM. Also, RCMs consistently project increases in the frequency of heavy rains and the intensification of extreme precipitation over South Korea. Analysis of moisture flux convergence reveals competing impacts between TH and DY. The TH effect contributes to the overall increases in mean precipitation over Northeast Asia and in extreme precipitation over South Korea, irrespective of models and scenarios. However, DY effect is found to induce local-scale precipitation decreases over the central part of the Korean Peninsula with large inter-RCM and inter-scenario differences. Composite analysis of daily anomaly synoptic patterns indicates that extreme precipitation events are mainly associated with the southwest to northeast evolution of large-scale low-pressure system in both present and future climates.
Keywords
Regional climate models · Precipitation · Northeast Asia · Korea · RCP scenarios · Moisture flux convergence
URI
http://oasis.postech.ac.kr/handle/2014.oak/38956
DOI
10.1007/s00382-017-3566-4
ISSN
0930-7575
Article Type
Article
Citation
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, vol. 49, no. 11-12, page. 4121 - 4139, 2017-12
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 MIN, SEUNG KI
Div of Environmental Science & Enginrg
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