철강 플랜트 프로젝트에서 불확실성을 고려한 경제성 평가의 의사결정 방법론 연구
- 철강 플랜트 프로젝트에서 불확실성을 고려한 경제성 평가의 의사결정 방법론 연구
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- The uncertainty in recent plant construction projects results from newly emerging strategic trends such as internationalization, mega-sized scale, complication of system requirements. And as a number of social, economic and politic conditions of investments are changing, interactive variables are rapidly increasing. Therefore diverse uncertainties and complicated conditions in mega plant projects are linked together by special interests.These complicated uncertainties cannot be fully recognized or defined at planning stage and can affect project’s performance directly or indirectly with its likelihood of occurrence throughout the life cycle. However unpredictable unknowns offer threats as well as opportunities, it is required for project owners to recognize the uncertainties and response accordingly. In case of steel plant projects, each project has a large initial capital expenditure and a long life cycle of operation, it is essential to predict an exact cash flow considering the inherent variability to make right decision on project’s economic viability.However, because the feasibility appraisal is a front-end work of the project, input variables are usually presumed as deterministic values by gathering experienced data and assuming expected future. In the case of long term investment, this deterministic approach can often totally distort the predictions in an unknown way. Therefore, it is paramount for project owners to predict and compare all possible future outcomes considering the inherent uncertainties associated with input variables. Thus it is required to consider not a stiff deterministic approach but more flexible probabilistic approach. And the key elements in managing uncertainty are reflective learning and sense-making as enablers of flexibility and rapidness in decision-making regarding the choice of alternative actions in response to the situation.In this study, descriptions of uncertainty derived from different disciplines were discussed and definition for plant construction project field was presented. Beyond the limitation of deterministic approach, an economic feasibility appraisal model with probabilistic approach was developed. And two case studies were conducted for verification. As a result, a proactive decision-making methodology was proposed taking into account the variability of an economic feasibility associated with the uncertainty. And it is expected that the application of developed model contributes to the enhancement of project success and enterprise value.This study is limited to include assuming probability distributions of each variable by individual experiential interpretation and absence of qualitative factors. The probability approach should absolutely depend on the reliability of distribution and plant projects are affected by a number of qualitative ground conditions. For these reason, further studies should be considered to develop more reliable distributions using accumulated field data and nonmonetary appraisal model to derive more significant results.
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